Jake Browning’s QBR & Expectations for his 2016 Season

ESPN a few years ago came up with “QBR” which is a better statistic for evaluating quarterbacks than passer rating. It takes into account far more things (fumbles, sacks, running, quality of defense) than passer rating. ESPN’s QBR stats only go back about 10 years but we can use these stats to evaluate Browning’s first season and project where he should and needs to be in 2016.

Last season Browning’s total QBR was 63.0 which was good for #57 nationally. Cyler Miles the year before came in at 50.0 which was #83 nationally.

Next we are going to list various QBR’s from various QB’s which include recent husky QB’s. We bold Browning and others in their true freshman seasons.

Note that Browning’s QBR as a true freshman was better than Jared Goff’s and Matt Barkley’s and those two ultimately became top 10 QB’s by their junior season. Goff had the biggest jump from freshman to sophomore year going up 20 points in QBR and from #78 to #16. Barkley improved from freshman to sophomore year by 7.5 points and by 12 spots. Anu Solomon improved by 10 points and 25 spots in the rankings.

 

QB, Year, QBR, National Rank

Matt Barkley, JR, 82.2, #6

Jared Goff, JR, 82.2, #7

Jared Goff, SO, 76.3, #16

Keith Price, SO, 69.1, #26

Jake Locker, FR, 65.0, #29

Matt Barkley, SO, 67.9, #31

Isaiah Stanback, SR, 63.2, #31

Jake Locker, JR, 63.9, #32

Anu Solomon, SO, 69.7, #33

Josh Rosen, FR, 69.5, #34

Matt Barkley, FR, 60.4, #43

Keith Price, SR, 68.2, #47

Jake Browning, FR, 63.0, #57

Jake Locker, SR, 56.1, #57

Anu Solomon, FR, 59.8, #58

Jared Goff, FR, 55.8, #78

Cyler Miles, 50.0, #83

Keith Price, JR, 47.0, #90

 

Here is a look at how some other top quarterbacks rated in the recent past:

 

Andrew Luck, JR, 93.8

Cam Newton, JR, 90.0

Andrew Luck, SR, 83.8

Marcus Mariota, SO, 89.4

Marcus Mariota, JR, 91.3

Deshaun Watson, SO, 87.8

Kevin Hogan, SR, 85.9

Vernon Adams, SR, 80.0 (#14 nationally)

Luke Falk, SO, 68.2

Brett Hundley, JR, 77.0

Kevin Hogan, JR, 69.2

 

If we take the average improvement from freshman to sophomore season of Solomon, Goff and Barkley, that would put Browning at a 75.3 for this season which would put him #23 nationally based on the 2015 numbers.

Where does Browning need to be for UW to win the north? Because UW has an elite defense, he won’t need to be as great as someone without an elite defense. As we see from above, a QBR of 90 is in the Heisman realm.

As an aside,┬ánote that Vernon Adams finished with an 80.0 with three shit games to begin his season. Exclude those and he would be at 87-88. (Oregon’s about to experience a major drop in QB play and we saw how much worse they were when that happened in 2015). Luke Falk also had three shit games to begin his year. Exclude those and he probably comes in around 75-80.

Over the past 5 years, Oregon & Stanford have dominated the north with the winning QB having a QBR ranging from 86 to 91. Looking at the south over the past 5 years, which was wide open-which could be the case for the north in 2016, the average QBR from the QB of the championship team was 71.4.

A range of 75-80 would have put you at #14 to #23 nationally. In my opinion that is where Browning needs to be for UW to win the north. Coming in at the high 70s (77-80) in my opinion makes it likely UW wins the north. With Ross and with the typical year 1 to year 2 jump, Browning should at least reach the low 70s. A good over/under for the season is probably 75.

 

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