Recruiting Notes & “Median” Class Rank

In this post we look at how Clemson, Alabama, Oregon and Stanford have performed in terms of W/L, SRS and their recruiting classes (rated in terms of average stars). Specifically we look at the 4 classes prior to that season and we come up with a median during those 4 years. Conclusions are at the bottom.

 

Clemson

2010- 6-7, #35 (previous 4 classes: #29, #8, #17, #26) median class #21 (Dabo’s 2nd season)

2011- 10-4, #31 (previous 4 classes: #18, #29, #8, #17) median class #17

2012- 11-2, #11 (previous 4 classes: #15, #18, #29, #8) median class #17

2013-11-2, #14 (previous 4 classes: #16, #15, #18, #29) median class #17

2014- 10-3, #23 (previous 4 classes: #18, #16, #15, #18) median class #17

2015- 14-1, #3 (previous 4 classes: #20, #18, #16, #15) median class #17

 

Washington

2012- 7-6, #49 (previous 4 classes: #52, #20, #22, #31) median class #26

2013- 9-4, #13 (previous 4 classes: #20, #22, #31, #20) median class #21

2014- 8-6, #41 (previous 4 classes: #22, #31, #20, #36) median class #26

2015- 7-6, #23 (previous 4 classes: #31, #20, #36, #26) median class #28

2016-  (previous 4 classes: #20, #36, #26, #17) median class #23

 

Alabama- Nick Saban first 5 years

2007- 7-6, #27 (previous 4 classes: #29, #15, #26, #26) median class #26

2008-12-2, #6 (previous 4 classes: #8, #29, #15, #26) median class #20

2009- 14-0, #1 (previous 4 classes: #7, #8, #29, #15) median class #11

2010- 10-3, #5 (previous 4 classes: #6, #7, #8, #29) median class #7

2011- 12-1, #1 (previous 4 classes: #2, #6, #7, #8) median class #6

 

Oregon

2008- 10-3, #14 (previous 4 classes: #15, #22, #30, #21) median class #21

2009- 10-3, #6 (previous 4 classes: #29, #15, #22, #30) median class #25

2010- 12-1, #2 (previous 4 classes: #13, #29, #15, #22) median class #18

2011-  12-2 #5 (previous 4 classes: #10, #13, #29, #15) median class #14

2012- 12-1 #2 (previous 4 classes: #12, #10, #13, #29) median class #12

2013- 11-2 #2 (previous 4 classes: #12, #12, #10, #13) median class #12

2014- 13-2, #1 (previous 4 classes: #16, #12, #12, #10) median class #12

2015- 9-4 #22 (previous 4 classes: #21, #16, #12, #12) median class #14

2016 (previous 4 classes: #20, #21, #16, #12) median class: #18

 

Stanford

2010- 12-1, #1 (previous 4 classes: #21, #14, #25, #35) median class: #23

2011- 11-2, #6 (previous 4 classes: #14, #21, #14, #25) median class: #17

2012- 12-2, #9 (previous 4 classes: #11, #14, #21, #14) median class: #14

2013-11-3, #5 (previous 4 classes: #25, #11, #14, #21) median class: #17

2014- 8-5, #20 (previous 4 classes: #13, #25, #11, #14) median class: #13

2015- 12-2, #3 (previous 4 classes: #28, #13, #25, #11) median class: #19

2016 (previous 4 classes: #25, #28, #13, #25) median class: #25

 

Under Saban, Alabama’s median rank has come down each year as his classes improved consistently in his first 5 years.

Under Chip Kelly, Oregon’s median rank made it all the way up to #12. Oregon’s talent, based on recruiting rankings was the strongest from 2012 to 2014. During those years they finished in the top 2 each year in SRS. With Kelly gone, Oregon’s median rank has steadily regressed from #12 to #18 going into this season. They are currently #23 for the 2017 class. That would drop their median to #20. Stanford’s recruiting is also regressing. Two years ago their median was #13. Heading into 2016 it is #25.

Meanwhile, UW’s 2016 recruiting class has brought its median down to #23. I expect that to be at #21 after the 2017 class.

UW’s median was as low as #21 in 2013, Sark’s 5th year. The coaching change pushed the next class to #36 and the 2015 class was #26. So those numbers are weighing on the median rank. The current class is #15 and that is with the punter which brought the star average down from 3.55 to 3.40. I think the class has a 50-50 chance to finish in the top 15. Heading into the 2017 season we could be looking at 36, 26, 17 and perhaps 15. Petersen’s classes will have gotten better and better. Oregon’s median rank will remain ahead of UW’s going into 2017 but after that UW likely will be recruiting the best in the North.

As far as year by year results in the north, they rank as so:

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