How will the 2019 offense compare to previous ones as far as talent and experience?
We can use 247 ratings and years of experience to compare. We can also decide whether the player is underrated or overrated relative to his 247 rating.
Here is what it comes out to for the offense over the past 3 seasons:
2018: 88.55 average, 2.17 years average experience & net 3 underrated
2017: 88.76 average, 2.25 years average experience & net 3 underrated
2016: 87.26 average, 1.75 years average experience & net 5 underrated
Here is a look at my projected 2019 offense which includes each player’s 247 rating and experience:
The average comes to 89.93 with experience at 2.17 years.
It’s difficult to judge overrated/underrated without the benefit of hindsight which we have for the other seasons. But I’ll take a stab at it. Eason, Ahmed and Wattenburg all are slightly overrated. Fuller, Bryant, Adams, Harris, Kirkland and Hilbers are underrated. Adjusting for the slightly, I’d say we have a net 3-4 players underrated.
Heading into the 2019, the offense clearly has more talent than any of the other recent seasons. And even when we include 2 freshman in the rotation of players, the experience comes out to 2.2 years.
Experience is great but talent outweighs experience especially when the talented player has a year or two under his belt. The 2016 offense ended up having 5 guys with only 1 year of experience or less. If Henry Bainivalu supplants Jared Hilbers, the experience would drop to 2.0 years but the talent average would rise to roughly 90.50.
My projected lineup does have 10 of 12 guys with at least two years of experience.